FrontFoot Weekly Roundup - January 5, 2026

FrontFoot

— 2 min read

This Week in SFR/BTR

2026 arrives with a clear signal: the Great Housing Reset is underway. Incomes are finally rising faster than home prices for the first time since the Great Recession. Meanwhile, SFR rents climb 2.3% while multifamily flatlines at 0.3%. The divergence tells you everything about where demand is heading.

Market Trends

  1. The Great Housing Reset Begins in 2026
    Redfin forecasts incomes will outpace home prices for a prolonged period—first time since 2008. Not a crash. A slow normalization over years.

  2. SFR Rent Growth to Outpace Multifamily by 8x in 2026
    Zillow projects single-family rents up 2.3% vs just 0.3% for apartments. Delayed homebuyers are choosing houses over units.

  3. December SFR Rents: DC Leads, Sun Belt Struggles
    CoreLogic December data: DC tops at 5.6% growth, Detroit 5.5%, Chicago 5.1%. Dallas and Atlanta trail at 0.4% and 0.7%. Half of 18 declining metros are in Florida.

  4. First-Time Homebuyer Age Crosses 40 for First Time Ever
    The median first-time buyer is now 40 years old. In the early 1990s, it was 28. A generational shift that fuels long-term rental demand.

Supply & Development

  1. Multifamily Starts Down 71% From 2022 Peak
    Just 60,000 units breaking ground in late 2025—well below historical averages. The supply cliff is coming. By 2027, completions drop 44.5% from 2025 levels.

  2. 2025 Delivered 506,000 New Apartments—Still Below Record
    Completions fell short of 2024's record but remain above any year since 2015. More than half landed in the South—Dallas, Austin, Houston dominated.

  3. US Needs 4.3 Million Rental Homes by 2035
    Arbor's 2026 outlook: structural shortage persists. Over 400 pro-housing bills introduced at state level, 100+ signed into law. Policy finally catching up to the math.

Investor Activity

  1. SFR Occupancy Rebounds to 94.5%, Renewals Hit 82%
    Q2 2025 occupancy up 80 bps from Q1, exceeding pre-pandemic averages. Lease renewals reversed multi-year decline—79.2% in April 2024 to 82%+ by mid-2025.

  2. Investors Capture 33% of Home Purchases in Q2 2025
    One-third of all single-family purchases went to investors—highest share in five years. But institutions are net sellers for six consecutive quarters, pivoting to BTR.

  3. 2025 Housing Inventory Surged 18.3% Year-Over-Year
    Monthly inventory peaked at 1.63 million homes in July. Price growth slowed to 1.1% by October—lowest since early 2012. The market is finally normalizing.

What Everyone's Missing

Everyone's calling 2026 the year of "gradual recovery." The data says something sharper.

Multifamily starts are down 71% from peak. Completions will drop 44% by 2027. But SFR occupancy just hit 94.5% and lease renewals climbed to 82%.

The first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old. That's not a statistic, it's a structural shift. These aren't people waiting to buy. They're long-term renters by necessity and, increasingly, by choice.

Institutions read this early. Net sellers on scattered-site for six quarters straight, but BTR starts remain at 71,000 units annually. They're building what the market needs: purpose-built rentals for the permanently priced-out.

The "recovery" narrative assumes people will buy when rates drop. The data suggests many never will. SFR isn't a bridge to homeownership anymore. For a growing share of Americans, it's the destination.

FrontFoot Team

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