FrontFoot Weekly Roundup - January 19, 2026

FrontFoot

— 3 min read

This Week in SFR/BTR

Invitation Homes made the biggest move in institutional SFR this year: acquiring ResiBuilt for $89 million to bring build-to-rent construction in-house. Meanwhile, Trump floated two major housing proposals at once—a 401(k) down payment plan for Davos and a $200 billion mortgage bond directive through Fannie and Freddie. The policy landscape is shifting fast, but institutions are already adapting.

Deals & Acquisitions

  1. Invitation Homes Acquires ResiBuilt for $89 Million
    The nation's largest single-family landlord bought Atlanta-based ResiBuilt, gaining a 70-person development team and options on 1,500 lots. ResiBuilt has delivered 4,200+ homes across Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas since 2018. The deal signals INVH is pivoting from buyer to builder.

  2. Dominium Plans $70 Million BTR Community in Texas
    The Minnesota-based developer is building 350 units in Terrell, 40 miles east of Dallas. At $200,000 per unit, this is their second BTR project after entering the sector last year in Phoenix. North Texas continues to lead national BTR development.

Policy & Regulation

  1. Trump to Announce 401(k) Home Investment Plan at Davos
    Economic advisor Kevin Hassett revealed plans to let homebuyers tap 401(k) funds for down payments. The mechanics: put 10% down, transfer 10% of home equity into your 401(k) as an asset. Implementation requires retirement rule changes and possibly new legislation.

  2. Trump Directs Fannie and Freddie to Buy $200 Billion in Mortgage Bonds
    FHFA Director Bill Pulte confirmed the directive: use GSE cash reserves to purchase mortgage-backed securities. Expected impact: 25 basis points off mortgage rates, maybe more. Skeptics note $200 billion is just 2% of the $9 trillion MBS market.

  3. 50-Year Mortgage Plan Shelved; Administration Pivots to Other Priorities
    Pulte told reporters the White House has "put aside" the 50-year mortgage proposal. The administration is now focusing on rate reduction through MBS purchases and 401(k) access—supply-side solutions are taking a back seat.

Market Trends

  1. Build-to-Rent Grows as Trump Increases Scrutiny on Single-Family Rentals
    BTR is now 7% of single-family construction starts, up from 4% in the early 2020s. The sector has 71,000 units in the pipeline nationally, with 38,000 under construction in the South alone. Key uncertainty: whether Trump's proposed institutional ban would extend to BTR.

  2. Single-Family Rent Growth Remains at 15-Year Lows
    SFR rents grew just 0.9% year-over-year through October 2025—the slowest pace in 15 years. Dallas led declines at -1.3% YoY. Florida accounted for half of the 18 metros with outright rent drops.

  3. Cap Rates Expected to Decline in 2026 as Market Stabilizes
    First American's model shows fundamentals support a 5.1% cap rate, below the actual 5.7% in Q3 2025. The 60 basis point gap reflects temporary pressures from tight credit. As distressed assets sell and capital markets thaw, valuations should recover.

Analyst Actions

  1. Multiple Analysts Downgrade AMH as Regulatory Uncertainty Lingers
    Wall Street Zen cut AMH to Sell this week. Barclays dropped its price target to $33. The 12-month consensus target fell 5.67% to $36.08. But AMH stock recovered from its January 7 lows, up 4.3% over the past week to $32.36.

  2. Housing Starts Fell to Lowest Level Since June 2020
    October 2025 starts came in at 1.246 million units, down 7.8% year-over-year. Single-family starts rose 5.4% month-over-month to 874,000, but multifamily plunged 25.9%. NAHB forecasts single-family to edge up 0.6% in 2026.

What Everyone's Missing

Every headline this week focused on Trump's policy proposals. The 401(k) plan. The mortgage bond buy. The institutional investor ban.

Here's what the data actually shows.

Invitation Homes just acquired a homebuilder. Not a portfolio. Not a scattered-site package. A construction company with 70 employees and 1,500 lots in the pipeline. The nation's largest SFR landlord is becoming a developer.

This follows the same pattern we tracked all year. After analyzing 12,704 institutional acquisitions over the past 12 months—down 46% from the prior year—the shift is clear. Institutions aren't buying existing homes. They're building new ones. AMH gets 95%+ of new inventory from in-house construction. Now Invitation Homes has the same capability.

Meanwhile, Florida markets are posting rent declines while Atlanta leads the nation with 728 acquisitions. Dallas added 520. Progress Residential alone deployed capital across 38 markets.

The policy debate assumes institutions are competing with first-time buyers for existing homes. The acquisition data says they already stopped. The ResiBuilt deal confirms they're not going back.

The institutions aren't waiting for policy. They've already moved on.

What to Watch

  • Davos (Jan 20-24): Trump expected to detail 401(k) home purchase proposal
  • AMH Q4 Earnings (Feb 19): Guidance on BTR pipeline and regulatory positioning
  • January Housing Starts (Jan 27): Will single-family construction continue its modest recovery?

FrontFoot Team

Read more