FrontFoot Weekly Roundup - December 21, 2025
This Week in SFR/BTR
64,200 BTR units under construction nationwide. Phoenix alone: 11,500. The birthplace of build-to-rent is doubling down.
Meanwhile, institutional scattered-site acquisitions remain muted. Small investors dominate deal flow in every major market we track. The pattern is consistent. The implication is hard to ignore.
The center of gravity in single-family rental has shifted.
Developments
Phoenix: 18% of Every BTR Home Being Built in America
Phoenix delivered 4,460 new rental homes in 2024—highest of any metro. Total since 2020: 12,700+ units. The scale is no longer experimental. It is institutional.
Sun Belt Claims 57% of National BTR Pipeline
36,800 BTR units underway across the Sun Belt. Developers completed 130,520 home starts in 2024—up 134% since 2019. Occupancy holds at 95.1%. Supply growth has not broken fundamentals.
Phoenix BTR Inventory: +309% in Five Years
13,000+ additional units planned or under construction. Projects like The Bungalows on Camelback (334 homes) signal the shift toward master-planned rental communities.
Market Trends
SFR-Multifamily Rent Gap Hits Record
Single-family rents: $2,174/month, up 4.4% YoY. Apartments: up 2.4%. The gap is the widest since tracking began in 2018. SFR commands a premium.
Rent Growth Hits 15-Year Low. Dallas Goes Negative.
National SFR rent growth: 1% YoY in September. Lowest since 2010. Dallas: -1.1%. Chicago: +4.3%. Market dispersion is widening.
Homeownership Now 82% More Expensive Than Renting
Key stat from IMN BTR West: first-time buyers average age 38. An estimated 65-75% of BTR residents are renters by necessity, not preference. Demand is structurally locked in.
Deals & Acquisitions
Citi Flips: Upgrades INVH, Downgrades AMH
Invitation Homes upgraded to Buy. Target: $38.50. Citi cites 30 bps cap rate discount and 3.5% earnings upside from new lending program. AMH downgraded on valuation.
Small Investors Now Control SFR Deal Flow
Houston, Dallas, Atlanta lead 2025 acquisitions. But institutional participation remains limited. Small investors with flexible underwriting dominate.
Policy & Regulation
Washington Passes Rent Control—First State in Six Years
Cap: 7% plus inflation, 10% ceiling. Follows California and Oregon from 2019. More states have bills pending.
Fed Study: 30% of 2025 Home Purchases Made by Investors
St. Louis Fed confirms institutional investors remain small nationally but dominate top 20 metros. Record investor share in early 2025.
What Everyone's Missing
The narrative: institutions are retreating from single-family rental.
The acquisition data supports it. After tracking 15 institutional portfolios, here's what we see: 27 acquisitions in Phoenix last year. 383 in Atlanta. 312 in Dallas. Against portfolios of 60,000+ homes, these numbers are rounding errors.
But acquisitions are no longer the strategy. Development is.
Phoenix has 11,500 BTR homes under construction. That's 425x the institutional acquisitions in the same market. AMH earnings calls confirm it—capital is flowing to development, not scattered-site buying. Invitation Homes and Progress Residential are running the same playbook.
The logic is straightforward. Scattered-site acquisitions mean competing with small investors, renovating aging stock, managing fragmented portfolios. Build-to-rent solves all three: new construction, clustered communities, purpose-built operations.
64,200 BTR homes underway nationally. Phoenix up 309% in five years. This is not a trend. It is a pivot.
Institutions are not abandoning single-family rental. The capital has not left the sector.
It has simply moved from existing homes to dirt.
What to Watch
Q1 2025 Earnings Calls (Late January)
AMH and Invitation Homes will report. Watch development pipeline disclosures and acquisition guidance. If development capex increases while acquisition targets stay flat, the pivot is accelerating.
Phoenix BTR Deliveries
11,500 units under construction need to lease up. Watch vacancy rates and concession activity in Phoenix BTR communities over the next year. Early signs of absorption stress would signal oversupply.
Rent Control Momentum
24 states have bills pending. California's next attempt (AB 1157 successor) likely surfaces in early 2025. If rent control expands to cover SFR, institutional strategy may shift further toward BTR in less regulated states.
Small Investor Activity in Sun Belt
Small investors are dominating acquisitions. If interest rates drop, watch whether institutions re-enter scattered-site or stay committed to development. The answer reveals whether the pivot is tactical or structural.
FrontFoot Team